September 20, 2022
New Smithsonian Research From “FUTURES” Uncovers a Path to Hope
Nearly 1 Million Visitor Insights From Landmark Exhibition Reveal Fascinating Insights Into People’s Feelings About the Future
As the Smithsonian’s first major exploration of the future, the “FUTURES” exhibition at the historic Arts and Industries Building (AIB) offered a groundbreaking look at many possible futures on the horizon. Now, new analysis of nearly 1 million insights from the exhibition’s more than 650,000 visitors offers a potential roadmap for inspiring hope around the future, with overwhelming data pointing to the fact that positive emotions result in greater action around big issues facing humanity. This broad survey could mark one of the most comprehensive glimpses into how people are thinking and feeling about the future during the seismic shifts of the past few years—and possibly one of the largest data collections of its kind.
From November 2021 through July 2022, “FUTURES” temporarily reopened the Smithsonian’s oldest museum for the first time in nearly two decades. The part-exhibition, part-festival brought together more than 150 historic objects, ideas, cutting-edge prototypes and installations that spanned art, technology design and history to help visitors imagine many possible futures on the horizon with a sense of flexibility and optimism. It was also designed to listen, with more than six different types of interactives that invited visitors to share their own visions of the future—from what actions they would take to make a better world to whether they could be friends with a robot. Almost all visitors (97%) reported a shift in mindset or emotion about the future after visiting.
In a first-of-its-kind partnership for a cultural institution, AIB is sharing what it learned publicly and with the Institute for the Future (IFTF), a leading research and educational organization devoted to future studies. This will inform the next phase of IFTF’s field-leading work, supported by analysis from global cultural audience research firm Morris Hargreaves McIntyre and exhibition technologists the LAB at Rockwell Group.
Highlights include:
- Hope drives action. Seventy-seven percent of visitors reported feeling more hopeful about the future after seeing “FUTURES.” A similar 80% reported being inspired to act to shape the future they desired, plus a sense of increased responsibility to do so. Despite the common wisdom that scaring people inspires action, FUTURES’ optimistic approach seemed to make huge challenges, like climate change, seem less overwhelming and spark a greater sense of both hope and direct agency.
- There is a “hopefulness gap”—but shifting this could be a key to shaping the future people most want. People have more faith in innovation and technology than they do in human cooperation. Formative research showed that while people want peaceful and equitable futures the most, they believe these are the least likely outcomes to happen. This disparity was creating a sense of despair and hopelessness. “FUTURES” data agreed, showing that people are much less optimistic about potential solutions to large-scale crises that are peaceful, empathetic or require large-scale human cooperation. They are more likely to have hope in future solutions that rely on technology, personal action or leaps of innovation. Much of “FUTURES” centered on the latter. By focusing on the former—stories of human collaboration from communities large and small—there is an incredibly effective opportunity to create wide-scale hope for the future.
- “Mental time travel” through specificity training can help create hope for the future. The concept of “specificity training” was foundational to the “FUTURES” exhibition, based on research from IFTF and others. The idea is that the more concretely one can envision the details of a possible future, the more capable one feels to take actions to make that future a reality. AIB curators worked to incorporate the “real world” each object could live in, showcasing actual solutions being tackled by real people and inviting visitors to speculate on how those ideas could play out over time. As a result of this “mental time travel,” 83% of visitors reported being able to imagine a better possible world. It made change seem more realistic, more hopeful and made the future feel closer.
- Looking 30 years out can give people the most productive mindset. When asked to predict when major social and technological shifts might happen (e.g., the first 3D-printed organ, all-electric gas stations, recyclable buildings), most visitors chose “30 years.” Early research from IFTF and others shows that people struggle to conceptualize more than 15 years in the future, which can often lead to devastating or paralyzing short-term thinking. Continuing to focus on that “30 year” window can help to create solutions that feel both tangible and ambitious.
- Including younger generations in the conversation can drive change and have the most impact. “FUTURES” created the opportunity for young people to place themselves in an important larger conversation about the future. Seventy percent of visitors were 40 or younger, much younger than the average Smithsonian audience. The youngest groups reported getting the most out of the exhibition by being able to talk to friends and family about the future, seeing solutions and seeing themselves reflected in it.
Hundreds of additional data points range from the entertaining (the future superpower people would most want? Teleportation!) to deeply profound (almost everyone would like to be buried in a pod to grow into a tree), as well as overarching trends (most people anticipate living longer in the future, but not with fewer worries) that reveal how visitors are thinking about the world to come.
By sharing these insights widely, AIB hopes to offer an example of how museums and cultural organizations can work closely with think tanks, designers and other research entities to create measurable impact that reaches far beyond an individual exhibition.
“The large-scale data and unprecedented insights about the futures that people want that has been generated by ‘FUTURES’ is invaluable,” said Jane McGonigal, future forecaster and director of Game Research and Development at IFTF. “We know that most young people today feel anxious about their own personal futures and the fate of humanity. We urgently need to revitalize our social imagination to collectively create believable images of positive futures. We need powerful new images, stories and possible paths forward that represent a world we want to live in, futures we would be empowered by, excited by, healed by. These ‘FUTURES’ insights can help community leaders and future-focused organizations like the Institute for the Future understand what visions of the future are most likely to cultivate a sense of realistic hope and the agency to act today to make a better world.”
Data was sourced from questions visitors answered at the exhibition’s “FUTURES Beacons” digital kiosks designed by LAB at Rockwell Group with a script from IFTF, responses to the interactive central sculpture “me+you”by artist and architect Suchi Reddy, in-person visitor surveys and interviews, and handwritten “action cards” visitors filled out at the exit. Additional support was provided by SoftBank Group Corp. and AWS.
About the Arts + Industries Building
The Arts and Industries Building (AIB) is a home for the future-curious. The Smithsonian’s second-oldest building opened in 1881 as America’s first National Museum, an architectural icon in the heart of the National Mall. Its soaring halls introduced millions to wonders about to change the world—Edison’s lightbulb, the first telephone, Apollo rockets. Dubbed “Palace of Wonders” and “Mother of Museums,” AIB incubated new Smithsonian museums for over 120 years before finally closing to the public in 2004. “FUTURES” is a milestone first step in the long-term plan to renovate and permanently reopen this landmark space. For more information, visit aib.si.edu. Follow the museum on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter.
“FUTURES” is made possible by a select group of sponsors and supporters: Amazon Web Services, Autodesk, Bell Textron Inc., Jacqueline B. Mars, John and Adrienne Mars, the Embassy of the State of Qatar, David M. Rubenstein and SoftBank Group. Major support is also provided by the Annenberg Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies, Kevin S. Bright and Claudia W. Bright, and Robert Kogod. Additional funding is provided by John Brock III, Events DC, First Solar, Ford Motor Company, Wendy Dayton, Charlie and Nancy Hogan, the Suzanne Nora Johnson and David Johnson Foundation, Lyda Hill Philanthropies, Meta, National Football League, National Football League Players Association and Oracle.